Immigration has in recent years become a major issue in US elections. ET explains what US politicians have been saying in the run up to the election there in November and the changes that can be expected in the visa regime.
What is the significance of H-1B visas?
H-1B visas allow US employers to employ skilled foreign workers in specialty occupations. Each year, about 85,000 H-1B visas are issued via lottery—65,000 open to all and another 20,000 for applicants with advanced US degrees. Online filing for H-1B visas for fiscal year 2025 is set to begin in February, with filing of petitions for selected registrants likely to begin in April. Indians hold the majority of H-1B visas, particularly popular among technology sector professionals.
What are presidential hopefuls saying?
Republican frontrunner Donald Trump in recent campaign speeches has spoken against immigration, saying immigrants “poison the blood of the country” and that he seeks to roll out “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history”.
His platform focuses on fortifying the Mexican border, but analysts believe a second term could resemble his first, during which he had proposed H-1B visa restrictions, and the denial rate for H-1B visas increased dramatically from 6% to 13%.
A second Trump presidency could also bring back a proposed rule from his first stint that changed the definition of an employer to allow the administration to require customers of IT and professional services companies to submit H-1B petitions as if they were employers of the H-1B professionals. This was designed to “end IT and professional companies’ ability to provide services with H-1B visa holders”, according to Forbes.
The Ramaswamy factor
Another Republican candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, who has now dropped out of the race endorsing Trump, had proposed to “gut” the H-1B visa regime in favour of a meritocratic system and called the regime “a form of indentured servitude that’s a product of corporate lobbying”.
Analysts say Ramaswamy would be Trump’s likely pick for vice president were he to win.
Trump’s rival in the Republican race, Nikki Haley, who has half the number of delegates he has, is in favour of legal immigration and merit-based selection based on economic needs.
What are the changes expected in the H-1B visa regime?
President Joe Biden has condemned Trump’s immigration comments and proposed more flexible rules for students and entrepreneurs to get H-1B visas.
His administration in October however pushed to allow only one registration per employee and narrow down the definition of ‘specialty occupation’ to require specialised degrees corresponding to the job role—something Trump had proposed in 2020.
Last week, the H-1B visa fee hike cleared the White House review, which is the final step before the rule’s official publication. The changes seek to raise visa fees from $10 to $215 for online registrations and from $460 to $780 for visa petitions.
These are seen as moves to curb the ‘abuse’ of the system whereby a candidate could make multiple applications to inflate their chances of selection.
How does it impact tech companies?
Tech companies like Amazon, Google, Meta, Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services employ a lion’s share of H-1B visa beneficiaries, according to analysis by National Foundation for American Policy.
The fee hikes will be borne by these employers, who sponsor the petitions.
The rule for a direct relationship between specialty job roles and degrees could impact tech employers who often look not for specialised degrees but industry experience given rapid technological advances.
The rule could also increase the burden on employers for more evidence to prove eligibility.
