2024 thus far has seen many changes for the Express Entry system.
From routine updates with proof of funds requirements, and Immigration Minister Marc Miller’s stated intention to have more “domestic draws” for Express Entry candidates—to significantly higher CRS scores, and a month-long pause in draws.
So how does the issuance of invitations to apply (ITAs) compare between the first six months of 2024, and the first half of 2023? And what can this tell us about how Express Entry will function for the rest of the year?
How many ITAs were issued in the first six months of 2023?
In the first six months of 2023, Immigration Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) held 13 Express Entry draws, issuing 49,948 ITAs to immigration candidates.
Draw types were:
So, while Express Entry in 2024 has technically held more draws overall in the first half of 2024—the average draw size has decreased, with the department cumulatively issuing 7,000+ invitations less between January and June of 2024.
In addition, we can see the average CRS score cut-off (not including category-based selection draws) in 2024, is almost 50 points higher than the average of general draws during the same period in 2023.
What can this information tell us about how Express Entry will function for the remainder of 2024?
Express Entry in 2024 will need to account for a difference of 7,000 less ITAs issued, when compared to the first six months of 2023.
This dynamic becomes more pertinent when looking at the immigration levels plan that IRCC released last year. According to the plan, Express Entry (denoted by “Federal High-Skilled") has an allocation of 110,770 in 2024.
This is an increase of close to 30,000 from 2023, where Express Entry was allocated a target of 82,800.
Notably these targets are not for ITAs, but rather for landings (when a new permanent resident abroad comes to Canada for the first time; or when a new permanent resident already in Canada completes their transition to PR status—in both cases formalising their new status in the country) of immigrants.
It is likely that IRCC plans for many newcomers to arrive in Canada in the year following the issuance of their ITA, given relevant processing and travel times.
For example, the number of ITAs issued in the latter half of 2023 are likely to account for landings in 2024, which will in turn count towards the landings target IRCC has set out for the 2024 immigration levels plan. IRCC has a published service standard of six months to process all Express Entry applications.
We can infer some information from the Plan. In 2023, IRCC issued 110,226 ITAs through the Express Entry system, to meet the levels plan target.
With a higher levels plan allocation this year (and in 2025), it is possible that the immigration department will pursue more ITAs to meet their larger immigration goals.
This fact, coupled with the finding that IRCC has to date this year, issued 7,000 fewer ITAs than in 2023, could yield to an Express Entry system which holds more frequent draws, or draws of greater sizes throughout the remainder of 2024. However, this is just one possible outcome.
While this information can be pertinent to ITAs, it remains uncertain how many ITAs IRCC will issue throughout the remainder of the year.
Source: https://www.cicnews.com/2024/06/how-do-express-entry-draws-in-2024-compare-to-2023-0644672.html#gs.afvaku
